The triple lock is the mechanism that determines how much the State Pension rises each April. It’s one of the most important — and debated — policies affecting UK retirement income.
Read more: See our State Pension guide for a complete overview of this topic.
Change Announced for April 2030
On 29 September 2026 the Department for Work and Pensions said the government has committed to the triple lock for the rest of this parliament, and that from April 2030 it will adjust it. Under the adjusted rule the State Pension will go up each year by at least inflation or 2.5%, and by anything more that is needed to keep its record high value relative to earnings, so over time it is set to rise in line with average earnings (DWP, State Pension uprating analysis 2026). The rises for April 2027 to April 2029 are still set by the triple lock.
How the Triple Lock Works
Each April, the State Pension increases by whichever is highest:
| Measure | What it tracks | For 2026/27 |
|---|---|---|
| Average earnings growth | Average weekly earnings, May–July (3-month average) | 4.8% — the measure used |
| CPI inflation | September CPI figure from ONS | 3.8% |
| 2.5% floor | Minimum guarantee | 2.5% |
The government applies whichever measure gives the biggest increase. For April 2026, average earnings growth (4.8%) was the highest of the three, so the State Pension rose by 4.8%: from £230.25/week to £241.30/week for the full new State Pension.
Triple Lock History: Year by Year
| Tax year | Increase applied | Measure used | Weekly amount (new SP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016/17 | 2.9% | Earnings | £155.65 |
| 2017/18 | 2.5% | Minimum floor | £159.55 |
| 2018/19 | 3.0% | CPI inflation | £164.35 |
| 2019/20 | 2.6% | Earnings | £168.60 |
| 2020/21 | 3.9% | Earnings | £175.20 |
| 2021/22 | 2.5% | Minimum floor | £179.60 |
| 2022/23 | 3.1% | CPI inflation (double lock — earnings link suspended) | £185.15 |
| 2023/24 | 10.1% | CPI inflation | £203.85 |
| 2024/25 | 8.5% | Earnings | £221.20 |
| 2025/26 | 4.1% | Earnings | £230.25 |
| 2026/27 | 4.8% | Earnings | £241.30 |
Rows for 2016/17–2019/20 reflect the historical public record and were not independently re-verified against a live source in this review; 2020/21 onward were cross-checked against DWP’s official 2026/27 benefit and pension rates publication.
Notable Events
- 2022/23: The triple lock’s earnings element was temporarily suspended for this year’s uprating because pandemic-recovery distortions had inflated average earnings growth to an unrepresentative level. The government used a “double lock” instead (highest of CPI or 2.5%), resulting in a 3.1% rise based on September 2021 CPI.
- 2023/24: The 10.1% increase was the largest single rise in state pension history in this period, driven by high inflation.
- 2024/25: The 8.5% rise was controversial because the earnings figure was boosted by one-off public sector pay awards (including NHS).
- 2026/27: The 4.8% rise was again driven by earnings growth, which outpaced September 2025 CPI inflation of 3.8%.
The Triple Lock Debate
Arguments For Keeping the Triple Lock
| Argument | Detail |
|---|---|
| Protects pensioner living standards | Ensures pensions don’t fall behind wages or prices |
| Combats pensioner poverty | UK had one of the lowest state pensions in developed nations |
| Electoral commitment | Repeatedly pledged in manifestos |
| Relatively small cost increase | Most of the increase comes from earnings/inflation anyway |
| State pension still modest | Even after triple lock increases, the full new SP is around £12,548/year |
Arguments Against
| Argument | Detail |
|---|---|
| Cost is rising rapidly | State pension cost as % of GDP is increasing |
| Generational fairness | Pensioners are better off on average than working-age adults |
| Ratchet effect | The triple lock always picks the highest measure, so pensions compound faster than any single measure |
| Distortions | One-off events (pandemic, public sector pay awards) can create artificially large increases |
| Unsustainable long-term | The OBR has projected it will add meaningfully to spending as a share of GDP over the coming decades — check the latest OBR Fiscal risks and sustainability report for the current projection |
What the Triple Lock Means for Your Retirement
The triple lock significantly affects long-term pension values. The table below is illustrative only — it models different hypothetical average annual growth rates from the 2026/27 rate of £241.30/week and is not an official forecast:
| Scenario | Illustrative state pension in ~20 years | Illustrative total received (20 years) |
|---|---|---|
| Triple lock continues beyond 2030 (~4.2%/year average, illustrative; now not planned) | ~£549/week | ~£381,000 |
| Double lock (earnings or CPI, ~3.5%/year, illustrative) | ~£480/week | ~£355,000 |
| CPI only (~2.5%/year, illustrative) | ~£395/week | ~£321,000 |
| Flat (no increases) | £241.30/week | £250,952 |
Over 20 years, the triple lock could plausibly deliver tens of thousands of pounds more in total pension income compared to CPI-only increases, though the exact gap depends entirely on future inflation and earnings paths, which cannot be forecast with precision.
Triple Lock and the New State Pension
The triple lock applies to the full rate of the new State Pension. However:
| Component | Triple lock applies? |
|---|---|
| Full new State Pension rate | Yes |
| Protected payments (above full rate) | No: rises each year in line with CPI |
| Old basic State Pension | Yes |
| Old additional pension (SERPS/S2P) | No — linked to CPI only |
| Pension Credit guarantee amount | Usually increases at least in line with earnings |
This means people with significant additional pension from the old system may see their overall pension increase by less than the triple lock headline figure.
What Could Replace the Triple Lock?
Several alternatives have been proposed:
| Alternative | How it works | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Double lock | Higher of earnings or CPI | Slightly lower increases; removes 2.5% floor |
| Smoothed earnings link | Average of earnings over 2-3 years | Removes one-off spikes; more predictable |
| CPI + 1% | Inflation plus a fixed margin | Predictable; still above prices |
| Earnings only | Link to average earnings | Pension maintains ratio to working incomes |
| Means-tested increase | Triple lock for poorest; less for others | Targets resources; complex to administer |
Triple Lock and Tax
As the triple lock pushes the state pension higher, an increasing number of pensioners are pulled into income tax:
| Full state pension | Personal Allowance | Gap remaining |
|---|---|---|
| £12,547.60 (2026/27) | £12,570 | £22.40 |
With the Personal Allowance frozen at £12,570 (confirmed frozen until April 2031) and the state pension rising each year under the triple lock, the gap narrowed to just £22.40 for 2026/27. If the April 2027 rise is more than about 0.2%, the full new State Pension will be above the frozen Personal Allowance in 2027/28. The government said at the 2025 Budget that, from April 2027, people whose only income is the basic or new State Pension won’t have to pay small amounts of tax through Simple Assessment.